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K -12 Master Plan Lexington Public Schools 4. Enrollment impact on ES needs Analysis of the impact of projected enrollments on elementary level space needs is based on the Four and Ten Year Enrollment Forecasts prepared by Dr. Paul Ash, Lexington Superintendent of Schools dated December 10, 2008. As was the case with the 2006 enrollment projections use for the 2006 ES Master Plan, the most recent enrollment projections show an impending marked decline in total Lexington Elementary School enrollments. This is significant in its implications, both for the number of elementary schools likely to be needed in the future and for the ability to undertake major elementary school replacement or reconstruction projects using existing schools as swing space. Capacity Analysis Answers to both of these questions require a comparative analysis of the capacities of existing elementary schools with the projected trend in elementary school enrollments. The elementary school capacity analysis dated 10/16/06 as part of the ES Master Plan shows the following capacities with the schools as -is (modular classrooms remaining): Total elem school capacity: (Kg plus grades 1 -5) 2822 pupils Range of individual capacities of older schools (Bridge, Bowman, Estabrook & Hastings): 444 to 512 pupils Range of capacity available with any ONE of the Older schools taken out of service: 2310 to 2378 pupils What this means is that, with any one of the older schools taken out of service, the elementary school system continues to have capacity for at least 2310 pupils. This is significant for two reasons: 1. It means that, if enrollments dip to below 2310 pupils for one or more years, it will be possible to do major projects, requiring the shutdown of a school for a year, at one or more of the existing elementary schools. 2. It means that, if enrollments drop below 2310 pupils on a long -term basis, it will be possible to close a school and operate the elementary school system as a 5- school system. If we look at the ES system with the modular classrooms removed, the figures are somewhat different: Total elem school capacity: (Kg plus grades 1 -5) 2523 pupils Range of individual capacities of older schools (Bridge, Bowman, Estabrook & Hastings): 260 to 466 pupils Design Partnership of Eamhridga