LPS Master Plan 2009 DPC - Laserfiche WebLink

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Range of capacity available with any ONE of the Older schools taken out of service: 2057 to 2263 pupils As regards ES capacities for new or reconfigured schools, the 2006 ES Master Plan recommends that the older schools be replaced with or reconfigured as schools with individual K -5 capacities of 450 pupils. The cumulative capacity of an ES system with new or reconfigured schools will be slightly less than the existing capacity for the same number of schools, because of the reconfiguration and the elimination of modular classrooms. The proposed capacity of a 5- school system with 3 new or reconfigured schools is 2284 pupils. Prognosis for Swing Space and Closing a school The current enrollment projections differ from the earlier projections in several regards (see graph). First, although both projections show a sharp decline in ES enrollments, the more recent projection shows this starting two years later. Secondly, where the earlier projection shows enrollments leveling out at a lower number, the more recent projections show a potential upturn in enrollments toward the end of the projection period. In both sets of projections, those done in 2006 and those done in 2008, alternate projections of high, mid -range and low options were developed„ For the 2006 ES master plan, the proposed ES design enrollment of 2175 relates closely to the mid -range projection, which showed ES enrollments leveling at 2138. Looking now at the most recent enrollment projection, the mid -range projection shows ES enrollments dropping to 2311 in FY13 (the 2012/13 school year) and staying in the 2200 range until FY 2019, when it shows an upturn to 2278. Even the High projection shows ES enrollments hovering at or below 2358 for the five years from FY2014 to FY2018 before climbing to 2417. As regards availability of swing space, it is possible to conclude from these projections that there should be sufficient excess capacity within the system to allow for the closing of one school at a time for renovation or replacement purposes from FY 2014 through FY 2018. However, given that actual enrollments have not followed the track of the downturn projected in 2006, it would be prudent to avoid committing to this path until an actual decline in enrollments has been observed that tracks the projections over a period of time. As regards the possibility of permanently closing a school, all of the alternatives in the current projections show an upturn in enrollments at the end of the projection period which, if sustained beyond the range of projections, could exceed the capacity of a five ES school system. Given this circumstance, it is difficult to maintain with any confidence that Lexington Public Schools. will be able to operate for an extended period of time as a five ES system. Design Partnership of Eamhridga