HomeMy WebLinkAboutFY 2002 Three Year ProjectionsThree -Year Projections
METHODOLOGY
The table on the next page shows projections of total
expenditure requirements and revenues for the next
three years. Projections are calculated in the
aggregate, using conservative assumptions, with the
intention of giving an overall perspective on the
Town's budget situation. The projections are
presented in sequence with the current year and three
prior years for comparisons.
In the operating budget, wages are projected to
increase 3% per year on the Town side and
$2,800,000 annually for Schools. Benefits are
projected to increase around 20% on average for the
next three years. This is an estimate that may be high
but we have begun to see significant cost increases
and more are predicted in the future for this industry.
Expenses are projected to increase about 3 %per year
for the Town and $650,000 annually for the Schools.
The additional increases for the Schools is intended to
reflect projected increased enrollment and special
education costs in the upcoming years.
Capital budget assumptions have been made
according to the Cash Capital Investment Plan that
has been adopted by the Board of Selectmen.
Enterprise articles are projected based on actual
departmental requests in the 5 -year Capital
Improvements Program for future years. General
Fund cash capital is projected based on the five year
policy plan (See Capital Investment/Debt
Management Section). The cash capital plan includes
the use of short-term bond anticipation notes to
finance certain capital projects over the next few years
before permanent debt service declines. Although
some new permanent debt will be issued against
existing authorizations, no new long -term general
fund debt authorizations are projected within
Proposition 2'/ for FY2002. At this time, no other
projections have been made for potential future debt
exclusions. Further information concerning FY2002
— FY2006 capital forecasting assumptions can be
found in the Capital Investment/Debt Management
section of the budget.
On the revenue side, Cherry Sheet revenue is
projected to increase by $680,000 each year due to
increased Chapter 70 education funding and lottery
revenue. Local receipts are projected to grow at a
modest $150,000 per year, and available funds are
level funded at $1,600,000. Enterprise revenues are
projected to keep pace with expenditure requirements.
RESULTS
These projections forecast a sizable gap between the
cost of providing the current level of services and the
revenue that may be generated over the next several
years. In FY2003 and 2004, the preliminary gap is
projected at just over $4 million.
The Town Manager, School Superintendent, and
elected boards have discussed strategies for reducing
the projected deficits. The School and Town
leadership staffs have pledged to work collaboratively
and identify refinements in expenditures and
revenues.