HomeMy WebLinkAbout2000 Background Info for Futures PanelBackground Information on Lexington for
2020 Vision FUTURES PANEL
February 17, 2000
Different Time Horizons
Various projects, boards, committees and departments are seeking to deal with important issues in
Lexington. Each effort has a different purview, both in terms of time span and breadth of subject. The
2020 Vision process has a sweeping and very long term outlook, free -ranging in its scope. Many
Town committees, commissions and departments have ongoing responsibilities involving day-to-day
operations. The Planning Board, in a sense, falls somewhere in-between. The Board is currently hard
at work on the land use element of a new comprehensive plan, which ultimately will use land
planning and regulatory techniques to help establish desirable development patterns. The purview of
this project falls roughly at the mid -point between the short term imperatives of ongoing operations
and the sweeping approach of the current Visioning effort.
A Futures Panel, by definition, will engage to one degree or another in some crystal ball gazing based
on their areas of great expertise. Looking far into the future is important for visioning and strategic
planning, but it is important to recognize that historical or shorter -term perspectives can be helpful in
providing background. Current and recent past trends in this community can be identified that show
patterns quite different from what they were in the 1980's and in the first half of the 1990's. The
process of understanding these trends and responding to them in rational and feasible ways is a
significant challenge.
Sample Significant Trends
Population and Households. Total population has been relatively stable in recent times, but there
are more households with fewer people as the elderly population has grown. The following statistics
are from Supplementary Data, Socio -Economic Characteristics of Lexington, Massachusetts, April
1994 by the Planning Department:
Population (Y0 over 65 # Households Persons/Household
1950 17,335 10.6 3,992 4.34
1960 27,691 8.7 6,975 3.97
1970 31,886 7.8 8,748 3.64
1980 29,479 11.5 9,673 3.05
1990 28,974 16.6 10,515 2.76
School Enrollment. Total 1990 enrollment in the Lexington Public Schools was 4,522 students
according to the Annual Report. Projected 1999 enrollment was 5,878 students according to the
Town of Lexington FY2000 Appropriated Budget. This represents a 30% increase over this period.
While Lexington closed a number of schools during the 1970's and 1980's, in 1995 Hastings School
was reopened.
Land development. The supply of parcels of land and individual building lots is dwindling, while at
the same time the economy continues to prosper and demand runs remarkably high. The fundamental
land economics have been changing before our eyes. There is ongoing documentation of the more
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recent development trends, which are largely residential in use; these market patterns are summarized
as follows:
1. The pressure continues to mount in regard to developing the remaining vacant and
underdeveloped parcels. There are dozens of such parcels remaining in Lexington, contrary to
what many might perceive.
2. There is a dramatic escalation toward infill housing development, or creation of additional
dwelling units within what is generally perceived as built areas of town and not part of a
subdivision. Infill takes several different forms:
a. Construction on the remaining vacant, buildable lots (which are rapidly
disappearing).
b. Demolition of existing dwelling units to create building lots, and replacing them
with new, much larger units (the teardown/large house phenomenon), all of which
have pronounced visual impact and are less affordable than the dwelling they
replaced.
c. Further subdividing of relatively small lots that are nevertheless large enough to
divide and develop for at least one more lot and house; many of these are likely to
be pursued under a section 7.4.5 frontage reduction special permit in the zoning
by-law; some might be small conventional subdivisions; a few might be Approval
Not Required lots.
3. A pronounced shift to developers attempting to use "orphan" lots, or lots without street frontage
that were recorded before subdivision control came into effect; the favorable land economics
were not there in the past; now they are. The legal uncertainties and jurisdictional questions
raised by those opposing such developments have created a major challenge for the Planning
Board.
Here are some examples of these trends. In just 1997/98/99 and 2000 to date, there were
approximately 80 teardowns with replacement. Between 1998 and 1999, the number of teardown
cases jumped by 50% (22 to 33 houses). During the same period, approximately 22 additional houses
were constructed on scattered vacant lots, involving neither a teardown or a subdivision. This means
that in a period of slightly more than 3 years, over 100 infill -type house were constructed, or 34 per
year. When the impacts upon affordability, neighborhood scale and density are considered, the infill
phenomenon begins to be significant.
Added to the infill total are the estimated 49 subdivision dwelling units within the same 3 -plus year
period that were either constructed or for which final permitting approval was gained (during 1999).
All the above statistics came from the Planning Department.
What's Next?
The former Mayor of Newark, New Jersey, Kenneth Gibson, once said that..."wherever the cities of
America are going, Newark will get there first." By analogy, it might be said that..." wherever the
mature metropolitan area suburbs of America are going, Lexington (and similar towns) will...get
there on their own time, whether they want to or not.