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2025-05-15-AC-min-att2
LHS HVAC Options Life Cycle Cost Option 1 —Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) Option 2 —Air to Water Heat Pump (ASHP) Option 3 —Hybrid (Ground Source &Air Source) Option 4 —Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Baseline — Gas Boiler with Air Chiller 4/22/25 Executive Summary LHS HVAC Options - 30 Year Life Cycle Cost ASHP w/ Longspan Solar $85 to $107M positive cash flow • $99M expected cash flow $1.5M lower upfront cost $12M Eversource charges $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 o $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 U $1,500,000 $1,000,000 Q $500,000 $0 ($500,000) ($1,000,000) ASHP Longspan Cash Flow (Solar IRA) 1 ■■■■■■■VIII 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Hybrid w/ Longspan Solar • $76 to $112M positive cash flow • $91 M expected cash flow • $5.2M additional upfront cost • $8.3M Eversource charges $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 a $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 U $1,500,000 $1,000,000 Q $500,000 $0 ($500,000) ($1,000,000) Hybrid Longspan Cash Flow (Solar IRA) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Solar REC Peak ■ Connected ■ SMART AEC ■ Eversource ■ O&M ■ Debt Solar REC Peak ■ Connected ■ SMART AEC ■ Eversource ■ O&M ■ Debt LHS HVAC Upfront Savings after Mass Save Compared to Baseline Gas / Chiller $2 5, 000 ,0 OO $151 000 ,0 OO $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0 $9,301,408 $21,671,317 Ground Source Air Source $14,874,961 H ybrid $2018561963 LT Life Cycle Cost - Modeled Scenarios IRA • No IRA ($51 to $72M positive cash flow) • Solar only IRA ($62 to $83M positive cash flow) • Full IRA ($62 to $100M positive cash flow) Energy Model SMMA energy model for each option 125% of SMMA energy model for each option ($8 — $10M lower cash flow) Solar Energy System Size • Standard parking canopy in lots A, B, C, & D • Longspan canopy in lots A & B ($23 - $25M additional positive cash flow) 4/24/25 LHS HVAC & Solar Life Cycle Cost LHS HVAC & Solar Life Cycle Cost 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - No IRA 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Solar IRA $125,000,000 $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $100,000,000 $82,557,130 $75,000,000 $71,928,310 $75,000,000 $69,271,023 $72,934,556 $58,523,133 $62,242,799 $61,775,561 $51,255,605 $50,000,000 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 25.0 EUI $25,000,000 $0 Net Zero I m m $0 GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC & Solar Life Cycle Cost LHS HVAC & Solar Life Cycle Cost 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Full IRA Weighted for all IRA Scenarios $125,000,000 $125,000,000 $99,989,868 $100,000,000 $100,000,000 $82,557,130 $86,939,605 $74,263,762 $79,899,925 $73,762,879 $75,000,000 $61,775,561 $75,000,000 $59,145,572 $50,000,000 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 4/24/25 $0 $0 GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC 125% & Solar Life Cycle Cost 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - No IRA $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $75,000,000 $61,735,982 $49,294,388 $53,810,604 $50, 000,000 $38,353,623 $25,000,000 $0 GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC 125% & Solar Life Cycle Cost 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Full IRA $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $90,761,123 $72,364,802 $78,507,410 $75,000,000 $50,000,000 $48,873,579 $25,000,000 4/24/25 $0 GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC 125% & Solar Life Cycle Cost 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Solar IRA $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $75,000,000 $72,364,802 $60,042,278 $64,502,361 $50,000,000 $48,873,579 $25,000,000 $0 GSHP ASH Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC 125% & Solar Life Cycle Cost Weighted for all IRA Scenarios $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $75,000,000 $65,035,017 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 $0 GSH P $69,707,597 $65,330,684 ASHP Hybrid $46,243,590 VRF LHS HVAC & Longspan Solar Life Cycle Cost 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - No IRA $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $92,215,401 $77,977,162 $83,498,638 $75, 000,000 $72,023,203 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 25.0 EUI 26.3 EUI 25.4 EUI $0 Net Zero Net Zero Net Zero GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC & Longspan Solar Life Cycle Cost 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Full IRA $125,000,000 $122,917,339 $106,317,663 $111,668,886 $100,000,000 $86,016,601 $75,000,000 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 4/24/25 $0 GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC & Longspan Solar Life Cycle Cost 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Solar IRA $125,000,000 $106,317,663 $100,000,000 $92,198,494 $97,663,837 $86,016,601 $75,000,000 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 $0 GSHP ASH Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC & Longspan Solar Life Cycle Cost Weighted for all IRA Scenarios $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $96,322,873 $102,792,097 $97,623,799 $82,518,251 $75,000,000 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 $0 GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $75,000,000 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 $0 LHS Life Cycle Cost Longspan 125% 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - No IRA $71,782,998 $84,496,968 $75,925,359 $59,238,549 LHS Life Cycle Cost Longspan 125% 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Solar IRA $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $98,599,230 $86,004,330 $90,090,558 $75,000,000 $73,231,947 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 $0 VRF A GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS Life Cycle Cost Longspan 125° 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Full IR $125,000,000 $116,723,175 $104,095,607 $100,000,000 $98,599,230 $75,000,000 $73,231,947 $75,000,000 $50,000,000 $69,733,597 $25,000,000 4/24/25 $0 $25,000,000 GSHP ASHP Hybrid $59,238,549 LHS Life Cycle Cost Longspan 125% 30 Year Positive Cash Flow - Solar IRA $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $98,599,230 $86,004,330 $90,090,558 $75,000,000 $73,231,947 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 $0 VRF A GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS Solar Life Cycle Cost Longspan 125% Weighted for all IRA Scenarios $125,000,000 $100,000,000 $90,128,708 $95,073,665 $90,050,521 $73,231,947 $75,000,000 $69,733,597 $50,000,000 $25,000,000 $0 VRF GSHP ASHP Hybrid VRF LHS HVAC Option 1 - GSHP Pro • Achieves 25 EUI • Highest efficiency • Lowest O&M costs • Lowest Eversource bills • Highest AEC revenue • Longer equipment life • Higher reliability • Best for rooftop solar • No electric resistance • Potential DHW source • $38 - $123M positive cash flow 4/24/25 Con • Highest upfront cost • IRA uncertainty • 2,500 sf mechanical room • Drilling area impact • Drilling schedule risk • Temporary gas boiler / chiller LHS HVAC Option 2 - A SHP Pro Con • Low upfront cost Does not meet 25 EUI • Modular configuration • Lowest efficiency • Higher reliability • Significant Eversource bills • No electric resistance • Lower AEC revenue • $62 - $106M positive cash flow 1,400 sf mechanical room • Glycol for freeze protection • 15 -year equipment life • Less rooftop solar 4/24/25 LHS HVAC Option 3 - Hybrid Pro Con • Size wells for heating Does not meet 25 EUI • Reduces drilling area impact • High upfront costs • Reduces drilling schedule risk • Lower AEC revenue • No electric resistance • 2,000 sf mechanical room • Potential DHW source 15 -year equipment life • $54 - $112M positive cash flow • Less rooftop solar 4/24/25 LHS HVAC Option 4 - VRF Pro • Lowest upfront cost • Higher efficiency • Simultaneous heating & cooling • No mechanical room space • $38 - $86M positive cash flow 4/24/25 Con • Does not meet 25 EUI • Electric resistance needed • DOAS and Defrost • MW Interconnection impact • Highest peak demand • Highest Eversource bills • Highest O&M cost • Maintenance concerns • 15 -year equipment life • A21- refrigerants • Lowest AEC revenue • Lowest rooftop solar Longspan Solar Option Pro $23 to $25M positive cash flow Address energy model cost risk • Achieve Net Zero performance • For ASHP & Hybrid options Longspan lower cost per watt • Currently modeled as same cost Con 4/24/25 Increased upfront cost • $5 to $71VI incremental for 1 MW (with and without IRA) ASHP w Longspan Solar Cash Flow (No IRA) $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 o $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 U $1,500,000 $1,000,000 c $500,000 Q $0 ($500,000) ($1,000,000) ($1,500,000) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Solar ■ REC m Peak ■ Connected ■ SMART AEC ■ Eversource ■ O&M ■ Debt LHS HVAC Options - Recommendations ASHP w/ Longspan Solar $85 to $107M positive cash flow • $99M expected cash flow 40 $1.5M lower upfront cost $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 a $3,000,000 - $2,500,000 s rn $2,000,000 U $1,500,000 Z, $1,000,000 Q $500,000 $0 ($500,000) ($1,000,000) ASHP Longspan Cash Flow (Solar IRA) ■E=== MEN 0 Mee:: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 ■ Solar REC ■ Peak ■ Connected ■ SMART AEC ■ Eversource ■ O&M ■ Debt 4/24/25 Hybrid w/ Longspan Solar • $76 to $112M positive cash flow • $91 M expected cash flow • $5.2M additional upfront cost Hybrid Longspan Cash Flow (Solar IRA) $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 o $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 r U $1,500,000 $1,000,000 Q $500,000 ($500,000) ($1,000,000) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Solar ■ REC ■ Peak ■ Connected ■ SMART AEC ■ Eversource ■ O&M ■ Debt 30 Year Average Annual Cash Flow- Only Solar IRA Scenario _ Option 1 _ Option 2 _ Option 3 I_ GSHP _� ASH Hybrid Debt Service ($603,828) , $80,946 ($279,350) Eversource ($173,645) ($400,628) ($275,957) O&M ($230,158) ($238,654) ($234,430) Solar $1,652,586 $1,625,687 $1,639,970 Peak Demand _ $1,485,417 _ $1,542,455 $1,461,437 ConnectedSolutions $400,000 $400,000 $400,000 RECs $163,527 $160,865 $162,278 SMART AEC S $172,911 $123,508 $148,210 Annual Net Benefit $2,866,811 r $31294,179 $3,022,159 Total30 Year Positive Cash Flow $86,004,330 $98,825,368 $90,664,762 4/24/25 Option VRF $169,253 ($1,233,707) ( $303,309) $1,601,168 $1,723,665 $397,400 $158,439 $59,508 $2,572,417 $77,172,508